A VC

So, I think this is going to be generally true of all small company alternative finance:

I'm optimistic that it will happen. In an open and free market, capital will flow to the places where it can earn an appropriate return. I suspect we'll see some of the large public pension funds who have been drawn to venture capital over the past decade decide to leave the asset class because it does not scale to the levels they need to efficiently invest capital. That will leave the asset class to family offices, endowments, and other smaller institutions who made up the largest part of the asset class in the 1980s and early 1990s.A VC, Apr 2009

Basically, the outsized returns for VC were followed by more and more capital until such point as they hit the returns from the general market. (Basically the marginal returns for another dollar invested converged.) This interesting thing about Fred's math here is that he derives the number top-down from the returns possible and the total size of the universe of possible exits, net of fees. 

Arguably every investment market has a similar point of diminishing marginal returns. The barriers presented by the qualified investor requirement might skew this number a little, but I bet the fees use that up.

Fred is a smart guy.

 

From peHUB: Not enough debt to analyze

From peHUB:

Leveraged Lending So Cold S&P Can’t Even Analyze It

...

"In fact, in the latest issue of Buyouts, Ari Nathanson reported that new debt issuance was so low S&P couldn’t even release quarterly averages on purchase price multiples and LBO leverage. Let me repeat: There were not enough deals in the first quarter to even average deal or leverage multiples."

...

Wow. Given that leverage availability drives valuations for LBOs, M&As, etc., and valuations at exit drive IRRs, and IRRs drive pre-money (and other terms), and pre-money drives founder returns...

It's just getting funner and funner, isn't it?

Cash Flow Management and Aliens at the Alamo

(SNL sketch, 19 nov 1988)

Just a random thought:

Many early stage plans use the popular "Annual net income (loss) equals Cash in (out)" method for showing how much money they are making. 

It reminds me of the above "Alamo" sketch from 1988. Aliens Mondo (Tom Davis)  and Zaktu (Minnesota Senator Al Franken) use a death ray on the troops of Santa Ana. Sure, they don't die right away, but wait a month and they'll all be dead.

Yes, in the long term, cash receipts should converge on the same number as net income.

In the short term, they are usually off by a lot - 20% of yearly run-rate or more. That means $1MM permanently sucked up in the cash cycle of a relatively small, stable, $5MM company.

A tenuous connection, I know, but I really liked this sketch.

Calling Dibbs on "IaaSaaS" (...aaS...aaS)

Alternate title for this post:

"How fast can everyone jump into a service that BY
DEFINITION is a commodity?"

"Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) - Standards Are The Key
The spoils will go to the first vendor supporting IaaS standards

By: Scott Mattoon
Dec. 16, 2008 03:40 AM"

Health and wellness programs: a long-term perspective

So, might just as well dive in.

From JPMorgan Compensation and Benefit Strategies:

http://www.jpmorgan.com/cm/cs?pagename=JPM_redesign/JPM_Content_C/Generic_Detail_Page_Template&cid=1159350132238&c=JPM_Content_C

Jun 12, 2008

This is an article about the "long term" benefits of sponsoring treatment management for high risk individuals. Note the quote from the CDC (emphasis mine):

"According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), “chronic diseases account for more than 75% of the nation’s $2 trillion medical care costs.”^[2] Behavior determines approximately 50% of health status, and genetics and environment determine another 20% each. Access to care accounts for the remaining 10%.^[3]"

...and later:

"Of those studies that reported a cost benefit ratio, the average was $5.81 to $1.00 after about a three-and-a-half-year period."

Now, this focuses on a high-risk, high-cost set of people, so you mileage may vary, but this strongly points to programs and the companies who can implement them and operate them being able to take a fair amount off the table and still cause a net reduction in healthcare costs.

Amazing to think that 3 1/2 years is "long term".

Lots of nifty graphs for your presentations.